Unrelenting Heat
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 12:04 PM
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Heat Advisory is in effect for Tuesday for most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau. Heat indices up to one hundred nine degrees Fahrenheit are expected during the afternoon. Rain chances this week are negligible. The next rain chances aren't expected until the weekend. We should start to see a gradual cool-down late next weekend and early the following week. High pressure! Broad upper ridge! Drier atmosphere! Zero rain! Negligible! Mid nineties! Unrelenting heat! Heat Advisory! One hundred five! One hundred nine! UNRELENTING HEAT! UNRELENTING HEAT! Surface boundary! Autumnal equinox! Gradual cool down!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
- Heat Advisory is in effect for Tuesday for most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau.
Heat indices up to 109F are expected during the afternoon.
- Rain chances this week are negligible.
The next rain chances aren't expected until the weekend.
- We should start to see a gradual cool-down late next weekend and early the following week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
High pressure has re-asserted itself at the surface and especially aloft, with a broad upper ridge circulating almost on top of us. So the atmosphere today is much less unstable and also significantly drier, and rain chances are therefore close to zero.
That's the way things are going to remain for awhile.
Meanwhile, the unrelenting heat is...well..unrelenting. Despite a relatively cool start to the day, afternoon temperatures are likely to warm into the low to mid 90s most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.
And even warmer temperatures are up just ahead.
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
A Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday for most of our non- Plateau counties.
Heat indices are expected to reach or exceed 105F for a large swath of the mid state.
The advisory may need to be extended through Wednesday, but that is much less certain.
So for now, we're focused on Tuesday's excessive heat.
High pressure will keep any weather-producing systems away from the region for most of next week.
The individual model solutions continue to show a surface boundary dropping southward toward Middle Tennessee by week's end, so we are introducing at least low PoPs this weekend and into early next week, with the possibility of a big cold frontal passage right around the time of the autumnal equinox.
Hopefully, this will be the last week for excessive heat.
All indications are that cooler weather is on the way just in time for the first day of autumn.