Too Little Lift
Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 12:14 PM
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Low to medium rain and storm chances will continue this afternoon, mainly east of Interstate sixty-five. The strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures are forecast to remain well above seasonal norms. Heat index values in the one hundreds are expected every day through Thursday, mainly for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau. We may start to see a gradual cool-down next weekend, along with our next rain chances, but there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding specific timing. The surface boundary has washed out into nothingness! Twelve zulu sounding from the Nashville office reveals near-record precipitable water hanging stagnant above us! Steeper mid-level lapse rates scorching the upper sky! A lid upon the atmosphere keeping the heat locked in! An upper troff rotates across the region with no mercy! The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows no convection left to save us! All this convective available potential energy rots in the suffocating moisture! If you do not get rain today, the dry pattern resumes forever! The sky is heavy with moisture but the atmosphere is dead! No forces left to trigger the storm, leaving too little lift! Trapped beneath the ridge with too little lift! Abysmal rain chances stretch across the entire coming week! Heat index values peaking in the low one hundreds day after agonizing day! The autumn cold front is trapped in the distance! Model solutions diverge into total doom! The boundary is gone! We burn in the humidity! Too little lift!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1204 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
- Low to medium rain and storm chances will continue this afternoon, mainly east of I-65. The strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
- Temperatures are forecast to remain well above seasonal norms.
Heat index values in the 100s are expected every day through Thursday, mainly for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.
- We may start to see a gradual cool-down next weekend, along with our next rain chances, but there is a great deal of uncertainly regarding specific timing.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
The 88D continues to show an area of light to moderate rain impacting areas east of I-65, with a paucity of activity occurring elsewhere.
And the HRRR shows very little convection developing in the afternoon air mass.
So we may very well have seen most of what we're going to see with this weather system.
The surface boundary that has impacted our weather the past couple of days appears to have washed out.
Indeed, the only feature remaining that could trigger additional activity is an upper trough that will rotate across the region during the afternoon.
After that, the dry weather pattern will resume.
In other words, if you don't get any rain today, it will likely be several more days before the next opportunity.
The atmosphere across Middle TEnnessee remains very humid and unstable.
The 12Z sounding from OHX shows near- record precipitable water values with plenty of CAPE, and the mid- level lapse rates are actually a little steeper than yesterday.
But the existing cloud cover is also keeping a lid on temperatures.
We will likely see additional sunshine during the afternoon, but by then, the upper trough will have come through and there will be too little lift left to convert all that moisture and energy into anything more than isolated cells.
As far as temperatures, expect the unseasonal warmth to continue through the weekend -- and throughout next week, as well -- as the much-anticipated initial autumn cold front is agonizingly slow to come our way this year.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Rain chances next week are abysmal until we get to Friday and into the weekend, and even that's iffy.
With no break in the summer pattern, heat indices are likely to peak at least in the low 100s many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau through Friday, and it now appears that we may actually reach heat advisory criteria on Tuesday, and perhaps again Wednesday.
The NBM continues to hint at a gradual cool-down beginning next weekend as a cold front approaches Middle Tennessee.
However, individual model solutions diverge greatly when it comes to pinning down a time frame for that fropa.
Obviously, our next rain chances and the inevitable drop in temperatures will depend largely on the timing of that cold front.
So plenty of uncertainly remains.