Effective Bulk Shear
Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 10:57 PM
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Above-normal temperatures continue with highs in the low nineties for most areas through the next seven days. Medium to high chance for showers and storms through Saturday. Best chances will be Saturday afternoon. Strongest storms could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall through Saturday. An elongated shortwave troff stretches wide From the Southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes Precipitable water holding near two inches A surface front hovering to the northwest Twenty-five hundred Joules of mixed layer energy Waiting in the heavy night air The atmosphere primed with every basic ingredient Under a marginal risk level one of five The storms decrease in intensity for now But convection waits to stay alive Twenty-five to thirty-five knots Cutting through the heavy atmosphere The storm begins to tilt and tear Effective bulk shear Effective bulk shear! Effective bulk shear! Effective bulk shear! Effective bulk shear!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1040 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
- Above-normal temperatures continue with highs in the low 90s for most areas through the next seven days.
- Medium to high chance for showers and storms through Saturday.
Best chances will be Saturday afternoon.
- Strongest storms could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall through Saturday.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
A fairly elongated shortwave trough is stretched from the Southern Plains through the eastern Great Lakes.
This is gradually approaching Middle Tennessee this evening with an associated surface front just to our northwest.
Ahead of the front lies a corridor of moisture and instability supportive of showers and thunderstorms.
PWs are up to ~2.0" and afternoon MLCAPE approached 2,500 J/kg earlier today.
We also have increasing mid-level flow which is bringing 25-35 kts eff. bulk shear into the area.
We've essentially covered the basic ingredients for severe storms and, hence, why we've been covered in a "Marginal Risk" (level 1 of 5) for portions of Middle Tennessee this evening.
The good news is storms have decreased in intensity, but additional isolated convection is possible overnight.
Chances for rain and storms will persist through the short-term forecast period as the disturbance aloft will reside in the region through Saturday.
This will provide lift for convection that should peak in intensity and coverage Friday and Saturday afternoons with heating.
Strongest storms will be capable of strong winds, heavy downpours, and perhaps small hail.
Most widespread rain/storm activity is expected Saturday as the shortwave moves directly over the area.
Something to keep in mind as we head into the weekend.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
By Sunday we'll be on the back side of the departing system aloft.
This should be a great weather day as drier air moves into the area, but with a quick recovery of low-level ridging.
Above- normal temperatures are forecast Sunday and will persist into much of next week thanks to a slow-moving deep-layer ridge that will persist.
Rain and storm chances are quite low and mainly limited to mid to late next week when we start to see a little moisture recovery to foster diurnal convection.