North of Interstate 40
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 11:40 AM
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A Heat Advisory remains in effect for northwest Middle Tennessee until eight P.M. for heat indicies near one hundred five degrees. Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the lower nineties for most areas through the rest of this week and next week. A wetter pattern kicks off Thursday through the weekend. Eleven forty A.M.! Central Daylight Time! The ridge— The ridge is five hundred ninety-seven! Issued at eleven forty! Wednesday, September ninth! Five hundred ninety-seven ridge at five hundred millibars! Unusually strong! Pumping humidity from the Bermuda high— South winds gusting to— Twenty-five miles per hour! Heat index topping one hundred at eighteen zulu— Sweat relief breaks off— Thursday afternoon! Zero zulu approaches! Front dipping down from the Ohio Valley! Forcing for showers! Forcing for convective storms! North of the boundary! Along the highway at late day— It stutters! It fails to— STALLED ZONE! FLATTEN THE PRESSURE! ONE HUNDRED FIVE DEGREES! NO ESCAPE FROM THE RIDGE! Flattening ridge from the north! Humidity peaking at five P.M.! Heat index topping one hundred! North of Interstate 40! North of Interstate 40! Until eight P.M.! North of Interstate 40! Stutter! Break!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for northwest Middle TN until 8 PM for heat indicies near 105 degrees.
- Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the lower 90s for most areas through the rest of this week and next week.
- A wetter pattern kicks off Thursday through the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
An unusually strong 597 H5 ridge continued to bring higher than normal heat to Middle TN and across the Southern States.
Southerly low-level winds around a Bermuda high were pumping in humidity with heat index values expected to top 100 for many areas through the afternoon and early evening.
The south winds were bringing slight sweat relief with gusts to 25 mph at times.
The ridge will begin to flatten a little on Thursday as a surface front approaches from the Ohio Valley.
Conditions will remain quite hot and humid, but we expect most areas to stay under advisory level criteria.
The front will provide enough forcing for a few showers and storms along and north of I-40 by late day.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1113 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
The weak, diffuse surface front from the Ohio Valley will dip into Middle TN Thursday night before stalling out.
This frontal zone, along with a series of weak shortwaves, will bring increasing chances for showers and storms Friday and especially Saturday.
Rain chances will peak in the 60 to 80 percent range Saturday afternoon.
In spite of low to medium rain chances Friday and medium to high chances Saturday, conditions will stay hot and humid with highs in the lower 90s and max heat index values around 100. The high humidity and storm chances will bring potential for local heavy downpours, but we are not looking for widespread flooding or severe storms thanks to weak forcing, poor lapse rates, and generally weak atmospheric winds.
Unfortunately, models show the buildup of another strong ridge pattern next week.
Highs may climb into the mid 90s again and we may be looking at heat headlines for many areas by Tuesday.