High Pressure Bullseye
Monday, September 7, 2026 · 12:25 PM
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Low rain chances for areas east of Interstate sixty-five this afternoon and evening. Above-normal temperatures with highs generally in the nineties expected through the week. Dry Tuesday and Wednesday, but rain chances increase Thursday. A stagnant line of silent thunder creeps northwest across the state as atmospheric moisture turns the sky to burning lead. Inverted-V soundings stretch into the void while one thousand Joules per kilogram of downdraft convective available potential energy wait to break the earth below. East of Interstate sixty-five the isolated cells ignite without a warning into the suffocating ninety degree heat. The boundary pushes north as night descends leaving patchy fog to choke the hollows under seventy degree lows. No rain will save this dry Wednesday earth. The high pressure bullseye locks above our heads. By Thursday the zonal flow sags lower under thirty knots of bulk shear creeping through the upper atmosphere. A fifty to seventy percent probability of precipitation offers no mercy, only relentless forcing and unstable air. Temperatures remain trapped in the upper eighties as mid-level lapse rates crumble into eternal decay. The ridge holds us in a grave of heat index values exceeding one hundred degrees west of Nashville. The front approaches but it brings no peace. The high pressure bullseye locks above our heads. The high pressure bullseye locks above our heads.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026
- Low rain chances for areas east of I-65 this afternoon and evening.
- Above-normal temperatures with highs generally in the 90s expected through the week.
- Dry Tuesday & Wednesday, but rain chances increase Thursday.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026
It's been a beautiful start to Labor Day with temperatures just now warming up to 80 degrees.
Cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs reaching near 90 degrees this afternoon.
A frontal boundary currently over east Tennessee will drift northwest today, providing a focus point for a few isolated thunderstorms to fire on. This will likely be along and east of the I-65 corridor.
While severe weather is not expected, stronger storms could produce gusty winds with another day of inverted-V soundings and high PWAT near 2 inches and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg.
Activity will diminish late tonight as the frontal boundary pushes north and instability wanes.
Overnight lows will be a touch warmer, near 70s degrees.
Isolated areas of patchy fog will be possible.
High pressure aloft will return over the southeast Tuesday, shutting off rain chances and warming temperatures up slightly into the low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026
The hottest day of the week will come Wednesday when the high pressure bullseye moves directly over Middle TN. Highs will warm into the mid 90s with increasing atmospheric moisture ahead of the next front.
This will result in heat index values reaching just over 100 degrees for a large chunk of points Nashville and west.
There will be a dip in the zonal flow Thursday that will eventually push a front through the area.
This front will bring our next decent chance for rain and storms on both Thursday and Friday with chances ranging between 50-70%.
Soundings aren't favorable for widespread severe weather, but bulk shear will increase near 30 kts. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor, but there will be plenty of instability with some forcing, so a low severe weather threat is not totally out of the question, but the threat overall appears very low at this time.
For the weekend, a series of weak shortwaves will ripple through the continued zonal flow, keeping low to medium rain chances between 20-30% in the forecast through Sunday.
Temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 80s to low 90s.