20 Percent Chance
Thursday, September 3, 2026 · 7:32 PM
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Updated at seven twenty-eight P.M. Central Daylight Time Thursday September third twenty twenty-six. Major to extreme heat risk through this week with heat index values in the triple digits. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties through Friday. Low chance for afternoon rain and thunderstorms through next week. Well the high pressure is anchored over the southeast, Turning this town into a sweltering beast! One hundred five to one hundred nine on the feel, Sun beat down like a hammer on steel! Overnight lows only mid to upper seventies, I'm strutting in the sun while you're down on your knees! Precipitable water sitting near two inches high, Not a single drop falling from this heavy blue sky! You're begging for relief, looking up for a sign, But I'm loving every second of this sweltering time! The upper level ridge ain't making no move, We're baking on the asphalt, slipping in the groove! You want a little cloud cover? Want a little dance? Baby, all you got is a 20 percent chance! Peak heating hours, yeah I'm strutting the line, Heat advisory running straight through Friday time! Moisture in the air but the cap holds tight, We burn through the day and we simmer all night! No cold front coming just to wipe off my sweat, This heat wave's the slickest thing you've seen yet! Precipitable water sitting near two inches high, Not a single drop falling from this heavy blue sky! You're begging for relief, looking up for a sign, But I'm loving every second of this sweltering time! The upper level ridge ain't making no move, We're baking on the asphalt, slipping in the groove! You want a little cloud cover? Want a little dance? Baby, all you got is a 20 percent chance! Yeah, twenty percent! Good luck with that rain, baby! One hundred nine degrees and I'm loving it! Sizzling all afternoon!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 728 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
- Major to extreme heat risk through this week with heat index values in the triple digits.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties through Friday.
- Low chance for afternoon rain and thunderstorms through next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Hot and humid conditions persist today as a large area of high pressure remains anchored over the southeast.
Heat index values will once again reach into the triple digits this afternoon, ranging between 105 and 109. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through tomorrow as the upper ridge will make little progress over the next 24 hours.
Try to minimize your time outside during peak heating hours, and if you have to be outside, take frequent breaks, wear light clothing and stay hydrated!
For the rest of this afternoon, most will stay dry, but there is a low 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm to develop this afternoon.
Should something develop, the primary concern would be heavy rain given climatologically high PWAT values near 2". Friday will be very much the same with continued heat and low shower/thunderstorm chances during the afternoon.
Overnight lows will stay warm, too, with temperatures only dropping into the mid to upper 70s.
LONG TERM
(Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
High pressure will start to pull back to the west this weekend, opening the door for a little better forcing to move through, promoting slightly higher rain/storm chances.
Tennessee will be fixed between the ridge to the west and a deepening low off the New England coast that will spin a shortwave through the eastern half of the CWA. A weak cold front will develop out of ahead of this wave that will bring slightly higher rain/storm chances to the area during the day Saturday.
Storm evolution and timing remain uncertain as models depict varying solutions.
Some deterministic guidance suggests a weakening MCS will ride the periphery of the ridge, clipping our northeast counties.
Others show a more unorganized development of storms immediately ahead of the cold front.
These details will hopefully be worked out in future runs, but regardless, the severe threat at this time appears low as bulk shear and mid-level lapse rates are on the lower side.
However there will be plenty of instability and moisture, so a few strong to maybe severe storms could be possible.
Once the front moves through, we will see a very slight drop in temperatures Sunday, but it's still going to be hot.
Fortunately, northerly winds will filter in drier air, so though it will be hot, it won't be nowhere near as humid.
For the bulk of next week, we will remain in a stagnant pattern where we'll have heat, humidity, and daily low chances for diurnally-driven thunderstorms.
Highs will remain in the 90s with feel-like temperatures near 100 degrees.