Stuck Under 596
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 12:20 PM
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Updated at twelve twenty P.M. Central Daylight Time Tuesday September first twenty twenty-six A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau through at least Friday night. Major to extreme heat risk this week with heat index values in the triple digits. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the hottest days of the week. Very low rain chances through midweek. Early fall heatwave hitting the ground Upper air flights show what we found Five hundred millibars holding the air Stout ridge of high pressure standing right there Trapping the moisture, trapping the flame Lower Mississippi playing the game Synoptic pattern won't budge at all Collaborating to sound the call Heat index rising past one hundred five Barely surviving to stay alive! Five hundred millibars heavy and thick! Middle Tennessee is getting so sick! No rain is falling, nowhere to run! We're stuck under five ninety-six! Thursday afternoon fifty percent chance Nashville hits one hundred in this burning dance Advisory standing right through Friday night Cumberland Plateau keeping in sight Weekend relief is a quick intermission Right back to heat in the weekly edition! Five hundred millibars heavy and thick! Middle Tennessee is getting so sick! No rain is falling, nowhere to run! We're stuck under five ninety-six! Eighty to ninety percent chance ahead! Above average heat till we're all dead! No rain to save us, no escape in sight! We're stuck under five ninety-six! Stuck under five ninety-six!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau through at least Friday night.
- Major to extreme heat risk this week with heat index values in the triple digits.
Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the hottest days of the week.
- Very low rain chances through midweek.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026
Middle TN is in the midst of an early fall heatwave, as evidenced by this morning's upper air flights.
A stout 596 dam ridge at 500 mb is centered over the TN Valley, trapping hot, moist air underneath it. These patterns are notoriously difficult to break up in the absence of a progressive synoptic pattern, much like we are seeing this week.
After collaborating with neighboring offices, a large Heat Advisory covers much of the Lower MS River and TN River Valleys starting at 11AM Wednesday.
Almost all of Middle TN (minus the Plateau) is included and can expect widespread heat indices above 105 degrees.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026
Expect progressively hotter conditions each day this week, especially on Thursday.
There is a medium chance (50%) Nashville's temperature could reach 100 degrees on Thursday afternoon.
As such, this Heat Advisory continues through Friday evening.
The Cumberland Plateau is currently not included but will keep an eye on heat index observations each day and make expansions as needed.
Long range ensemble forecasts suggest this upper level ridge will retrograde back over to the Central Plains some time over the weekend, providing us with a little relief in the form of northwest flow aloft.
This is only a brief intermission from oppressive heat, as this same ridging pattern sets right back in mid next week.
We're looking at a high chance (80-90%) of above average temperatures through the end of next week for all of Middle TN.