Close to 99
Monday, August 31, 2026 · 6:30 PM
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Updated at six twenty-five P.M. Central Daylight Time Monday August thirty-first twenty twenty-six. Hot with highs in the mid to upper nineties west of the Plateau this week. Major to extreme heat risk is expected by the middle of the week with heat index values in the triple digits. Wednesday and Thursday should be the most impactful days of the week. Very low rain chances through midweek. Convective temperatures have already been met over the Plateau... Cumulus fields pretty healthy at ten forty-nine A.M... Convection allowing models show a tiny shower chance... Probability of precipitation close to nil... You thought tomorrow brought September relief. Incorrect. The culprit intensifies overhead, trapping low seventies dew points beneath the upper level ridge. A late-summer heat push with nowhere to run, holding back headlines until the next package arrives. Tension builds beneath the dome, Wednesday and Thursday will impact us most. The ridge intensifies, the humidity locks in place, No rain to wash away the ghost. Dew points in the low seventies, No rain will fall to clear the sky. You thought summer was over, Close to 99. NINETY-NINE! NINETY-NINE DEGREES AT B N A! NINETY-NINE SET IN TWENTY ELEVEN! NINETY-NINE! Tiny low chance on the Plateau tonight. Probability of precipitation... close to nil. Summer continues.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 625 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
- Hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s west of the Plateau this week.
- Major to extreme heat risk is expected by the middle of the week with heat index values in the triple digits.
Wednesday and Thursday should be the most impactful days of the week.
- Very low rain chances through midweek.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday Night) Issued at 1049 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
Y'all thought that just because September arrives tomorrow that summer was over, didn't you?
Incorrect.
For all of you summer-lovers out there, the treat of heat and humidity looks to continue for at least the next 6 days.
The culprit in this late-summer heat push is an upper level ridge that has exerted itself over the eastern half of the U.S. The problem is, that ridge is expected to intensify over the next few days and with dew points in the low 70s, major to extreme heat risk problems are expected to arise for a good chunk of Middle TN. After discussions with surrounding offices, while it will be warm and humid tomorrow, we're going to focus on Wednesday and Thursday as being the hottest days of the week.
For now, we'll hold off on any headlines until at least the next forecast package for consistent messaging.
As a side note, I don't think any temperature records are in serious jeopardy at BNA, but Wednesday could be close (99 set in 2011).
Of course, with the ridge in place, rain and storms chances will be close to nil, but I am going to include a tiny, very low chance for a shower or storm on the Plateau this afternoon.
Convective temperatures have been met and cu fields are already pretty healthy over the Plateau.
CAMs do show a little development, so I don't want to have no PoPs over there.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1049 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
Medium range guidance is suggesting the ridge will start to break down towards the end of the week.
This is being shown in the temperature guidance starting Friday.
Yes, it'll still be hot and humid, but the heat risk should be slightly less.
As we move into the weekend and Labor Day, we continue to see temperatures back off a bit as the ridge slips off to the west.
Slightly above normal afternoon highs will probably still be with us, but not as intense as the middle of this week.
The stinker is, if we start to lose the ridge this weekend, that means low to medium storm chances will likely start to creep back into the forecast.
Nothing organized, but diurnal, summer-time thunderstorms with at least a low wind risk would re-enter the forecast.