Strengthening Inversion
Monday, August 31, 2026 · 12:13 AM
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Lyrics
Hot with highs in the mid to upper nineties west of the plateau this week. Major to extreme heat risk is expected by the middle of the week with heat index values in the triple digits. Very low rain chances through midweek. Precipitable water sitting high above one point six zero inches. Dew points in the seventies hold the heavy air in place. A weak cap between seven hundred and six hundred fifty millibars, Keeping every shower scattered while the moisture fills the space. Tuesday centers the upper level ridge right over Middle Tennessee. The air begins to sink. At seven hundred fifty millibars, The trap is locked. Afternoon heat index values reach one hundred five. There is no cap breakdown. WE SUFFOCATE BENEATH THIS DOME! FEEL THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE AIR! NO STORM CAN RISE AGAINST THIS FORCE! TRAPPED IN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION! SEVEN HUNDRED FIFTY MILLIBARS! ONE HUNDRED FIVE DEGREE HEAT INDEX! LESS THAN FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE! STRENGTHENING INVERSION! LOWS ONLY IN THE SEVENTIES! STRENGTHENING INVERSION! NO RELIEF AT ALL!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1212 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
- Hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s west of the plateau this week.
- Major to extreme heat risk is expected by the middle of the week with heat index values in the triple digits.
- Very low rain chances through midweek.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Heat will be the main concern this week as a strong upper level ridge builds over the region.
This will bring an extended period of late summer heat.
Widespread major heat risk will develop by Tuesday and become major to extreme Wednesday through Friday.
If you are outside this week for extended periods of time it will be important to take heat precautions by staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in a cool place.
Highs on Monday will warm a few more degrees compared to Sunday with more widespread mid 90s.
With dew points in the 70s we will see afternoon heat index values push into the triple digits.
We saw some very widely scattered showers develop on Sunday and we will see a similar threat on Monday, chances will be less than 15%.
There will be a weak CAP between 700 and 650 mb keeping much of the areas dry.
With PWATs above 1.60" heavy rain will be likely under any showers that do develop.
We will add a few more degrees to our highs on Tuesday as the as the upper level ridge centers over Middle TN. Afternoon heat index values will get as hot as 105. The substance inversion will strengthen around 750 mb keeping rain chances very low.
Lows will be mild throughout the period only falling into the 70s.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
The heat looks to peak on Wednesday but conditions will remain hot into the end of the week.
Highs will remain in the mid to upper 90s for much of the area with heat index values as hot as 107. A low level CAP looks to remain in place keeping rain chances very low.
The upper level ridge will break down late week into the weekend and build back west.
This will bring some cooling starting Friday with additional cooling over the weekend.
As the ridge breaks down rain chances will increase slightly but overall forcing will be weak keeping the chances low.