Rain-Free Weekend
Monday, August 24, 2026 · 10:44 PM
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Look for a dry, cooler evening and overnight period. Fog is possible across the river valleys in the morning. Low to medium rain and storm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night, then taper off after Thursday. We should stay rain-free this weekend. Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then a little warmer to start off next week. Whoa-oh-oh! Yeah! Come on now, baby! Got a surface high centered over the Great Lakes tonight, Giving Middle Tennessee a cool air mass, feeling oh so right. Just one more cool night before the temperature swells, I'm smirking at the forecast, ringing all your bells. There's fog in the river valleys in the morning light, But you and me, sugar, we're taking off tonight! That surface low is building way down in the Arklatex, A troff extending east, but I wonder what comes next? When that dry air gets locked in, the rain gets pushed away, So throw your leather jacket on, we're heading out to play! Oh, return flow is picking up, honey, can't you see? We're stepping out tonight in Middle Tennessee! Forget that Arklatex low, we're living care-free, Yeah, we got a rain-free weekend! By Wednesday night the storm chances try to creep in, A little low to medium rain where the clouds begin. Quantitative precipitation forecast under one quarter inch, Near the Tennessee Alabama border, we won't even flinch! Cumberland Plateau might see a half inch score, But baby, I'm the wild storm that you've been waiting for! That surface low is building way down in the Arklatex, A troff extending east, but I wonder what comes next? When that dry air gets locked in, the rain gets pushed away, So throw your leather jacket on, we're heading out to play! Oh, return flow is picking up, honey, can't you see? We're stepping out tonight in Middle Tennessee! Forget that Arklatex low, we're living care-free, Yeah, we got a rain-free weekend! Approaching Heat Advisory criteria by next Monday, We're warming up the night, doing it the fun way! Whoa-oh-oh! Rain-free weekend! Yeah, a rain-free weekend!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
- Look for a dry, cooler evening and overnight period.
Fog is possible across the river valleys in the morning.
- Low to medium rain and storm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night, then taper off after Thursday.
We should stay rain-free this weekend.
- Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then a little warmer to start off next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes continues to provide Middle Tennessee with a dry, stable and relatively cool air mass.
We've one more cool night to look forward to before return flow picks up tomorrow and brings us more normal August temperatures by the afternoon.
After that, look for a gradual, but steady warming trend that will carry over into next week.
Rain and storm chances will return to the forecast Wednesday and Wednesday night as a surface low develops over the Arklatex and a trough of low pressure extends eastward across the Gulf Coast states and the Tennessee Valley.
However, as often happens once a dry air mass gets locked in, rain and storm chances are getting pushed toward later start times.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
It now appears that the best rain chances will hold off until Thursday and then start to taper off Thursday night and Friday.
It still looks as though we've a rain-free weekend to look forward to. And even with multi-day rain chances, storm total QPF values remain unimpressive.
Indeed, the bulk of the mid state can expect less than 1/4" of rainfall spread across the next 7 days, although a few spots -- mainly in areas near the TN/AL border and along the Cumberland Plateau -- might see as much as 1/2".
Either way, we can expect below normal rainfall for the next week.
Temperatures, on the other hand, will continue to warm through the weekend, and much of the mid state might actually approach Heat Advisory criteria by next Monday and Tuesday.
Otherwise, severe storm risk this week looks to be very low.