Just Enough Lift
Monday, August 24, 2026 · 12:43 PM
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Look for dry, cooler evening and overnight periods through Tuesday morning. Fog is possible across the river valleys each morning. Low to medium rain and storm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night, then taper off on Thursday. Keep an eye out for a few stronger storms on Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then a little warmer to start off next week. High pressure delivers the goods across Middle Tennessee! Dewpoints holding in the upper fifties and low sixties, a welcome change! Radiational cooling under clear skies tonight! Patchy fog settling down in the river valleys! Upper eighties on the Plateau, a carbon copy tomorrow! Comfortable humidity before the pattern breaks! A weak surface low takes shape near the Arklatex! Residual boundary lifting north into the Tennessee Valley! Wednesday afternoon, weak shortwave energy approaching! Marginal parameters, temperatures climbing into the lower nineties! Moisture slowly increases, the atmosphere is priming! Just enough lift! Just enough lift! Just enough lift! Just enough lift! JUST ENOUGH LIFT! JUST ENOUGH LIFT! JUST ENOUGH LIFT! JUST ENOUGH LIFT! JUST ENOUGH LIFT! JUST ENOUGH LIFT! JUST ENOUGH LIFT! JUST ENOUGH LIFT! Just enough lift... Just enough lift...
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
- Look for dry, cooler evening and overnight periods through Tuesday morning.
Fog is possible across the river valleys each morning.
- Low to medium rain and storm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night, then taper off on Thursday.
Keep an eye out for a few stronger storms on Wednesday afternoon.
- Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then a little warmer to start off next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
High pressure continues to deliver the goods across Middle TN. The cooler, drier air that filtered in behind this weekend's front remains firmly in place, and it is welcome change after the prolonged stretch of 90s and sticky humidity.
The afternoon remains mostly sunny with light north to northwest winds.
Highs are settling in the upper 80s for most of the mid-state, a few degrees cooler on the Plateau.
Dewpoints are holding in the upper 50s and low 60s, so it actually feels like late August instead of mid-July.
Tonight looks excellent for radiational cooling under mostly clear skies.
Expect lows in the mid 60s for the majority of the area, with some upper 50s in the usual cooler spots across the Plateau.
Patchy fog will likely develop again in the river valleys tonight and early Tuesday morning.
Nothing widespread or dense enough for an advisory at this point, but it will be noticeable in the usual low-lying spots.
Tuesday is essentially a carbon copy of today.
Sunny skies, light NW winds, and highs right around 90. Humidity stays comfortable.
Another cool night follows with lows again in the mid 60s and same valley fog potential.
All in all, a very quiet and enjoyable couple of days.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
The pattern begins to shift midweek as a weak surface low takes shape near the Arklatex and a residual boundary tries to lift north into the TN Valley.
Moisture will slowly increase, and that is enough to reintroduce some rain chances.
Wednesday looks mostly sunny early, then partly cloudy as the day progresses.
A slight chance of showers and a few thunderstorms develops during the afternoon and evening, mainly as weak shortwave energy and the approaching boundary provide just enough lift.
Highs climb into the lower 90s.
Coverage is not expected to be widespread, but environmental parameters are just marginal enough that a few strong storms could be possible.
Wednesday night keeps low chances for showers and overnight lows staying in the 70s.
Thursday starts with lingering low chances in the morning that gradually diminish.
A slight chance of afternoon storms remain possible before the system shifts east and drier air begins to filter back in. Highs stay in the lower 90s.
From Friday through the weekend the forecast settles back into a quieter regime.
Mostly sunny to clear skies, dominate, with highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Humidity recovers a bit but stays manageable.
No significant weather is expected.
Looking into early next week, temperatures trend a little warmer, possibly brushing the mid 90s in spots by Monday.
The overall pattern still looks relatively quiet.