700 Millibar Jet
Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · 8:25 AM
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Slight risk level two out of five for severe storms tonight in the northwest. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main concerns. There is a very low tornado and large hail threat as well. Warm and more humid today. Heat indices will reach the low one hundreds in some areas generally west of Interstate sixty-five. Near normal temperatures are expected this weekend. DECAYING MESOSCALE SYSTEM CROSSING THE STATE LINE! DESTRUCTION DISSOLVES BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN MY SPINE! SOUTHERLY FLOW PRIMING THE AIR TO IGNITE! COLD FRONT IS CLOSING IN FAST ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT! DESTABILIZATION TAKES HOLD! THE FORECAST UNFOLDS! SUPERCELLS CLUSTERED AND BLIND! LEAVING DAMAGE BEHIND! Lift me up into the atmosphere With no space left to regret Everything is crashing down tonight Under the seven hundred millibar jet DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE HAZARD TO FEAR! HEAVY RAINFALL FALLING HARD AND CLEAR! UPPER LEVEL TROFFING ON FRIDAY WILL BLEED! ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT WE NEED! WEST OF INTERSTATE SIXTY-FIVE! HEAT INDICES REACH ONE HUNDRED TO STAY ALIVE! THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY MID-AFTERNOON! NO TORNADO WILL SAVE US SOON! Lift me up into the atmosphere With no space left to regret Everything is crashing down tonight Under the seven hundred millibar jet SEVEN HUNDRED MILLIBAR JET! DRIED OUT AIR FOR THE WEEKEND! NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT! NEVER FORGET!
The forecast discussion
NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 814 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
- Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms tonight in the northwest.
Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main concerns.
There is a very low tornado and large hail threat as well.
- Warm and more humid today.
Heat indices will reach the low 100s in some areas generally west of I-65.
- Near normal temperatures are expected this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Clear skies currently over the mid-state, with lows in the 60s expected overnight and to start Wednesday morning.
Cloud cover will increase into Wednesday morning, as a decaying MCS makes its way towards the area.
Some guidance shows the MCS making it into our northwestern counties before falling apart, whereas others show it will stay north of the TN/KY state line.
If it does make it into TN, it will likely be confined to our NW counties.
Southerly flow will make things moist in the area, priming the atmosphere for the severe threat into Thursday morning.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Wednesday evening, a cold front will approach Middle Tennessee.
A 700 mb jet will pick up around this time as well, leading to destabilization and possibly some strong to severe storms.
Because of this jet, our main hazard is damaging winds, but heavy rainfall is also a threat.
Storm mode with this threat looks to be clusters of storms, but some supercells cannot be ruled out (our tornado threat is very low).
Thursday the front should move east by mid-afternoon, leaving us with drier air and high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Troughing in the upper levels will lead to more shower chances on Friday, but we are not expecting any severe weather at this time.
These rain chances look to be fairly isolated, thankfully, and the pattern turns dry for the weekend.
Into the beginning of the work week, we remain in NW flow aloft, which looks to bring in isolated rain chances through mid-week.
Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through the forecast period.