Clusters Of Storms
Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · 12:18 AM
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Wednesday will be very warm and more humid with temperatures rebounding into the mid nineties. Low to medium chances for showers and storms late Wednesday night and Thursday. There is a low severe weather threat Wednesday night along and west of Interstate sixty-five. Near normal temperatures this weekend. The clear skies offer no salvation, only a brief illusion before the suffocating heat returns! Temperatures rebounding into the mid nineties as humidity saturates the barren landscape! A decaying mesoscale convective system crawls toward the border line like a dying beast! Southerly flow breathes moisture into the stagnant lower atmosphere to prepare the sacrifice! The cold front approaches Middle Tennessee in the dead of night, bearing destruction! A seven hundred millibar jet accelerates above the boundary layer, tearing through the dark! Widespread atmospheric instability primes the mid-state for violent collapse! Heavy rainfall threatens total inundation as the storm mode turns to chaos! We watch the skies for supercells, waiting for the canopy to tear itself apart! Clusters of storms! Sweeping across the midnight horizon! Damaging winds tearing down everything we built! Clusters of storms! Thursday afternoon brings no mercy, only the passing of a fractured surface front! Drier air sweeps in behind the wreckage, but upper level troffing keeps the curse alive! Isolated shower chances linger under the cold northwest flow aloft! There is no sanctuary in the pattern, only an endless cycle of decay! The upper level troffing holds us in its grip! Northwest flow forever! Northwest flow forever!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
- Wednesday will be very warm and more humid with temperatures rebounding into the mid 90s.
- Low to medium chances for showers and storms late Wednesday night and Thursday.
There is a low severe weather threat Wednesday night along and west of I-65.
- Near normal temperatures this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Clear skies currently over the mid-state, with lows in the 60s expected overnight and to start Wednesday morning.
Cloud cover will increase into Wednesday morning, as a decaying MCS makes its way towards the area.
Some guidance shows the MCS making it into our northwestern counties before falling apart, whereas others show it will stay north of the TN/KY state line.
If it does make it into TN, it will likely be confined to our NW counties.
Southerly flow will make things moist in the area, priming the atmosphere for the severe threat into Thursday morning.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Wednesday evening, a cold front will approach Middle Tennessee.
A 700 mb jet will pick up around this time as well, leading to destabilization and possibly some strong to severe storms.
Because of this jet, our main hazard is damaging winds, but heavy rainfall is also a threat.
Storm mode with this threat looks to be clusters of storms, but some supercells cannot be ruled out (our tornado threat is very low).
Thursday the front should move east by mid-afternoon, leaving us with drier air and high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Troughing in the upper levels will lead to more shower chances on Friday, but we are not expecting any severe weather at this time.
These rain chances look to be fairly isolated, thankfully, and the pattern turns dry for the weekend.
Into the beginning of the work week, we remain in NW flow aloft, which looks to bring in isolated rain chances through mid-week.
Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through the forecast period.