Showers After Midnight
Monday, August 17, 2026 · 10:01 PM
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Brief but welcome relief Tuesday with dry weather. One final push of heat returns Wednesday, but remains below Heat Advisory criteria. A more progressive pattern develops Wednesday night into next week, bringing increased rain chances and a return to near normal temperatures by the weekend. Northwest flow gave us twenty-four hours to breathe Upper eighties, lower nineties, clear sky relief Overnight lows near seventy, a temporary quiet space Before southerly return flow slams right back in our face Humidity climbs, heat index touching one hundred two The progressive pattern is pushing on through NINETY FIVE! NINETY FIVE! NINETY FIVE! ONE FINAL PUSH! Southerly winds pull the moisture back high Clouds build up beneath a deepening troff in the sky One final push before the cold front breaks through We expect showers after midnight THE PROLONGED HEAT EPISODE IS EFFECTIVELY ENDING! A DEEPENING TROFF IN THE EAST! MIDNIGHT COMES! MOVE THE FRONT! NINETY FIVE! NINETY FIVE! NINETY FIVE! RAIN COMES AT NIGHT! Showers after midnight! Showers after midnight! The heat is broken! It ends tonight!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
- Brief but welcome relief Tuesday with dry weather.
One final push of heat returns Wednesday, but remains below Heat Advisory criteria.
- A more progressive pattern develops Wednesday night into next week, bringing increased rain chances and a return to near normal temperatures by the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
A reinforcing surge of drier air and NW flow will settle across Middle Tn on Tuesday.
Highs are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s under mostly sunny skies, noticeably more comfortable than recent days.
Overnight lows Tuesday night drop into the upper 60s to around 70 with clear skies.
By Wednesday, southerly return flow allows temperatures to rebound.
Highs climb back into the mid to upper 90s with increasing humidity, pushing heat indices into the 90s to low 100s in some locations.
While not as extreme, it will still feel quite warm.
Clouds increase Wednesday night as the next system approaches, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely after midnight.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
A cold front associated with a deepening trough over the E U.S. will move through the region Thursday.
This will bring the best rain chances of the period along with highs held in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Any stronger storms Thursday could produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall, through organized severe weather appears limited.
Behind the front, temperatures settle closer to seasonal normals Friday through the weekend, with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s and lower humidity.
Additional chances of showers and storms linger into the weekend as residual moisture and weak disturbances rotate around the trough, but coverage should be more scattered.
By early next week, high pressure builds briefly, favoring mostly dry conditions and continued seasonable temperatures.
Confidence is good in the overall cooling and increased precipitation trend through the weekend.
The prolonged heat episode of mid-August is effectively ending.
Enjoy the more comfortable conditions Thursday, then prepare for a wetter stretch through the end of next week.