Damaging Winds Arrive
Monday, August 17, 2026 · 10:56 AM
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Lyrics
Medium storm chances will bring a low-end damaging wind risk from three to eight P.M. to areas east and south of Nashville, and especially along the Cumberland Plateau. Brief relief from the heat and humidity will come tomorrow before one last day of heat on Wednesday. Medium chance for additional storms Wednesday night and Thursday, then temperatures return to normal for the upcoming weekend. The boundary creeps from Kentucky soil The mid-state bakes beneath the oil A quiet rumble in the northwest sky A sudden spike as the hours fly Along and east of Interstate sixty-five The atmospheric threat grows alive Low level lapse rates steep and clear The only missing piece is shear Instability builds the funeral pyre The clouds ignite with unseen fire Wail across the mountain! Cry into the sky! Along the Cumberland Plateau Damaging winds arrive! By nightfall the frontal edge will pass Dew points dropping down at last Into the sixties tomorrow's breath A brief surrender, a temporary death Before the southwest winds return on Wednesday afternoon And open up the upper level troff too soon Wail across the mountain! Cry into the sky! Along the Cumberland Plateau Damaging winds arrive! Damaging winds arrive! Damaging winds arrive! Along the Cumberland Plateau! Damaging winds arrive!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1051 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
- Medium storm chances will bring a low-end damaging wind risk from 3 to 8 pm to areas east and south of Nashville, and especially along the Cumberland Plateau.
- Brief relief from the heat/humidity will come tomorrow before one last day of heat on Wednesday.
- Medium chance for additional storms Wednesday night and Thursday, then temperatures return to normal for the upcoming weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1051 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
If you are not a fan of all this heat and humidity, hang on tight.
Relief is coming.
The first (though short) stint of relief will come tomorrow after this frontal boundary pushes through Middle TN this afternoon.
We're already seeing some effects from this boundary this morning with a few showers/rumbles of thunder in our northwest quadrant.
However, the front itself is still back in KY. As it pushes closer to the mid-state this afternoon, we are still expected a spike in convective activity.
Most should be confined to areas along and east of I-65 with a peak time frame of 3 to 8 pm. Forecast soundings are still supportive of a marginal wind risk with decent mid and low level lapse rates and plenty of instability.
The main mitigating ingredient is a lack of vertical shear.
We'll continue to highlight a low chance for damaging wind gusts during this time frame.
Once the front gets through here this evening, I think we'll see one day of temp/humidity relief tomorrow.
Dew points fall back into the 60s by tomorrow afternoon and highs will be much more near normal.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1051 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
One more (short-lived) shot of heat and humidty is expected to rear its head again on Wednesday as the boundary layer swings back around to the southwest.
Afternoon highs will creep a few degrees warmer than normal, but that should be about it. Cooler weather will follow!
BUT -- the door may be open for showers and storms, too.
Most are suggesting a Wednesday night into Thursday time frame now for more widespread storm development.
Forecast soundings on Thursday are worth watching as mid-level lapse rates are healthy and there could be *a little* more shear to work with.
This storm potential on Wednesday night and Thursday all revolves around the development of a large upper level trough over the eastern half of the US and once we get past these mid-week storms, most medium range guidance suggests temperatures right around normal with small to no rain chances for the upcoming weekend.
Something to look forward to if you have outdoor plans!