I Like It Hot
Monday, August 17, 2026 · 12:41 AM
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Dangerous heat is expected through Monday with triple digit heat indices across most of Middle Tennessee. Medium storm chances Monday may bring a damaging wind risk during the afternoon and evening hours, especially to areas east of Interstate sixty-five. Extreme heat and humidity should be out of Middle Tennessee by late week. Lows in the mid to upper seventies didn't cool us down Residual heat hanging heavy over Nashville town Highs climbing fast to the upper nineties today The heat advisory's locked until seven P.M. anyway Sun's baking down on the asphalt strip Got a strut in my walk and a sneer on my lip Weak frontal boundary sliding down from the north Watch the downburst convective available potential energy pour forth Heat index cranking past one hundred and five This kind of trouble makes me feel alive The afternoon sky is loaded for a fight Damaging wind gusts coming three to ten P.M. tonight East of Interstate sixty-five, let it rock Yeah baby, I like it hot Deep layer shear might be marginal at best But these isolated cells are gonna put us to the test Upper ridge flattening out, giving up control Unstable air burning deep down in my soul Drier air on Tuesday? Yeah, that's fine But right now the extreme values are mine Weak frontal boundary sliding down from the north Watch the downburst convective available potential energy pour forth Heat index cranking past one hundred and five This kind of trouble makes me feel alive The afternoon sky is loaded for a fight Damaging wind gusts coming three to ten P.M. tonight East of Interstate sixty-five, let it rock Yeah baby, I like it hot Let it burn, let it blow, east of Interstate sixty-five Three to ten P.M. is when we come alive One hundred five on the index clock Yeah baby, I like it hot Yeah, I like it hot
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1236 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
- Dangerous heat is expected through Monday with triple digit heat indices across most of Middle Tennessee.
- Medium storm chances Monday may bring a damaging wind risk during the afternoon and evening hours, especially to areas east of I-65.
- Extreme heat and humidity should be out of Middle TN by late week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 914 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
The peak of the heat wave has passed, but residual effects linger.
Tonight remains warm and muggy under mostly clear skies with lows in the mid to upper 70s and light southwest winds.
Little relief from the heat.
Monday features another hot day as the upper ridge slowly flattens.
Highs are expected in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices still climbing into the 100-105 range.
A Heat Advisory covers the entire area through 7 PM Monday.
A weak frontal boundary will approach from the N during the afternoon and evening, increasing showers and thunderstorm chances (highest chances E of I-65).
Forecast soundings continue to show strong instability and elevated DCAPE, supporting a risk of isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts, especially during the 3 to 10 PM window.
Deep-layer shear remains marginal, so organized severe weather is not expected, but any stronger cells will need to be monitored.
Overnight Monday lows fall into the low to mid 70s as the front pushes through.
Tuesday brings the first solid cooldown of the period.
NW flow and drier air will hold highs in the low to mid 90s with lower humidity and mostly sunny skies.
Overnight lows drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 914 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Southerly return flow allows temperatures to rebound somewhat Wednesday into Thursday, with highs climbing back into the mid to upper 90s.
Heat indices may approach advisory levels in spots, but the extreme values of the past week are not expected to return.
Isolated afternoon storms remain possible but coverage looks limited.
By late week into the weekend, global models show increasing agreement on a broader trough amplifying over the easter U.S. This should finally dismantle the residual ridge influence, open the door for more widespread rain chances (especially Thursday into Sunday), and push temperatures closer to or slightly below seasonal normals.