Damaging Winds East Of Sixty Five
Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 6:29 AM
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Dangerous heat is expected through the weekend with triple digit heat indices across most of Middle Tennessee. This is resulting in major to extreme risk for heat-related illnesses. Please take the necessary precautions to protect yourself and loved ones from this oppressive heat. Medium storm chances on Monday may bring a damaging wind risk during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially to areas east of Interstate sixty-five. Early indications have the excessive heat and humidity out of Middle Tennessee by next weekend. Yeah, turn that monitor up in the headphones. One hundred and two in the shade! Let it bake, baby! That Arklatex ridge is sitting heavy on our chest Highs hitting one hundred two west of the Plateau Clear skies tonight, mid seventies, zero rest Sun comes up tomorrow and we run the whole show Heat index cranking to one hundred twelve Extreme Heat Warning burning up till seven P.M. You want a little shade? Go dig a hole and dive 'Cause I am strutting through the furnace again BRING ON THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BRING ON THE DAMAGING WIND EAST OF INTERSTATE SIXTY-FIVE THAT WEAK FRONT IS SLIDING IN ONE HUNDRED TWELVE ON THE STREETS Monday morning muggy and the ridge flattens down Weak frontal boundary sliding from the northwest Fifteen to twenty knots of bulk shear in town Isolated cells coming to give you a test Marginal lapse rates, instability high You're praying for relief but you won't get none Damaging gusts falling out of the sky I'm standing on the roof just to watch the fun BRING ON THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BRING ON THE DAMAGING WIND EAST OF INTERSTATE SIXTY-FIVE THAT WEAK FRONT IS SLIDING IN ONE HUNDRED TWELVE ON THE STREETS One hundred twelve degrees! East of Interstate sixty-five! We ain't cooling down till next weekend, baby! Yeah!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 628 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
- Dangerous heat is expected through the weekend with triple digit heat indices across most of Middle Tennessee.
This is resulting in major to extreme risk for heat-related illnesses.
Please take the necessary precautions to protect yourself and loved ones from this oppressive heat.
- Medium storm chances on Monday may bring a damaging wind risk during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially to areas east of I-65.
- Early indications have the excessive heat and humidity out of Middle TN by next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The upper ridge remains the dominant feature through Sunday, centered near the Arklatex region and supporting continued hot, dry conditions across Middle TN.
Sunday will be another oppressive day.
Abundant sunshine and light winds will push highs into the upper 90s to around 100-102 in many locations west of the Plateau.
Heat index values are expected to reach 105-112 during the afternoon.
The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until 7 PM Sunday, with the Heat Advisory coverage along the Plateau.
It is likely that a headline will be needed for Monday, but heat indices look more in the Advisory range.
Overnight Sunday into Monday stays warm and muggy with lows in the mid to upper 70s under clear skies.
A few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday evening ahead of an approaching boundary.
By Monday the ridge begins to flatten and shift southward as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the NW. Highs will moderate slightly into the mid to upper 90s, though heat indices may still reach advisory levels in some areas.
A low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms develops during the afternoon and evening, mainly tied to the approaching boundary and residual instability.
Forecast soundings suggest marginal mid level lapse rates and bulk wind shear between 15-20 kts. This should limit any organized severe potential, but isolated stronger cells can't be ruled out where damaging winds will be the main threat.
Overnight Monday lows fall into the low to mid 70s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
A brief respite from the extreme heat is expected Tuesday as a front settles south and NW flow increases aloft.
Highs should settle into the low to mid 90s, closer to seasonal normals, with lower humidity and mostly sunny skies.
Overnight lows drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.
By Wednesday and Thursday, southerly return flow may allow temperatures to rebound somewhat into the mid to upper 90s, though heat indices are not expected to reach as high as the previous weekend.
Isolated afternoon showers or storms remain possible but coverage looks limited.
Toward the end of the next week into next weekend, global models show better agreement on a broader trough amplifying over the eastern U.S. This evolution should finally push he ridge farther SW and open the door for more widespread rain chances and a return to near normal or slightly below normal temperatures by next Sunday.
Confidence increases in the overall cooling trend but remains moderate on exact precipitation timing and amounts through the second half of next week.