One Hundred Twelve With Damaging Gusts
Saturday, August 15, 2026 · 10:57 PM
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Dangerous heat is expected through the weekend with triple digit heat indices across most of Middle Tennessee. This is resulting in major to extreme risk for heat-related illnesses. Please take the necessary precautions to protect yourself and loved ones from this oppressive heat. Medium storm chances on Monday may bring a damaging wind risk during the afternoon and early evening hours. Early indications have the excessive heat and humidity out of Middle Tennessee by next weekend. Oh yeah! Step right up, ladies and gentlemen! Whoa! It is gettin' spicy out here tonight! Ha ha! Well now, that upper ridge is sitting real cozy down in the Arklatex... And she ain't in any hurry to leave, no sir! Sunlight's pouring down, light winds just whispering sweet little lies, Pushin' those high temps up to one hundred, one hundred two west of the Plateau! And that heat index? Oh honey, you better check the gauge... We are talkin' one hundred five to one hundred twelve degrees by the afternoon! Extreme Heat Warning locked down until seven P.M. Sunday night... You feel that sweat rollin' down your neck yet? Ha ha! WHOA-OA! ONE HUNDRED TWELVE! The furnace is cooking Middle Tennessee! H-E-Y! Here comes Monday with a fifteen to twenty knot shear! Damaging winds knockin' down the door! Oh yeah, it’s a heatwave spectacle, baby! HA HA HA! WHOA! Now Monday rolls around and that ridge starts to flatten out... A weak little front creepin' in from the northwest, playin' hard to get! Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon... Soundings say marginal mid level lapse rates, but don't you get relaxed! Those isolated stronger cells are looking for a little mischief... And damaging wind is the name of the game, yeah! Lows in the mid to upper seventies, keeping you warm and muggy all night long! WHOA-OA! ONE HUNDRED TWELVE! The furnace is cooking Middle Tennessee! H-E-Y! Here comes Monday with a fifteen to twenty knot shear! Damaging winds knockin' down the door! Oh yeah, it’s a heatwave spectacle, baby! HA HA HA! WHOA! WHOA-OA! ONE HUNDRED TWELVE! The furnace is cooking Middle Tennessee! H-E-Y! Here comes Monday with a fifteen to twenty knot shear! Damaging winds knockin' down the door! Oh yeah, it’s a heatwave spectacle, baby! HA HA HA! WHOA! By next weekend that upper level troff moves over the eastern United States... Relief is coming, folks, but until then... Stay cool, keep dancin', and watch out for those Monday gusts! See ya at the carnival!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1007 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- Dangerous heat is expected through the weekend with triple digit heat indices across most of Middle Tennessee.
This is resulting in major to extreme risk for heat-related illnesses.
Please take the necessary precautions to protect yourself and loved ones from this oppressive heat.
- Medium storm chances on Monday may bring a damaging wind risk during the afternoon and early evening hours.
- Early indications have the excessive heat and humidity out of Middle TN by next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The upper ridge remains the dominant feature through Sunday, centered near the Arklatex region and supporting continued hot, dry conditions across Middle TN.
Sunday will be another oppressive day.
Abundant sunshine and light winds will push highs into the upper 90s to around 100-102 in many locations west of the Plateau.
Heat index values are expected to reach 105-112 during the afternoon.
The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until 7 PM Sunday, with the Heat Advisory coverage along the Plateau.
It is likely that a headline will be needed for Monday, but heat indices look more in the Advisory range.
Overnight Sunday into Monday stays warm and muggy with lows in the mid to upper 70s under clear skies.
A few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday evening ahead of an approaching boundary.
By Monday the ridge begins to flatten and shift southward as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the NW. Highs will moderate slightly into the mid to upper 90s, though heat indices may still reach advisory levels in some areas.
A low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms develops during the afternoon and evening, mainly tied to the approaching boundary and residual instability.
Forecast soundings suggest marginal mid level lapse rates and bulk wind shear between 15-20 kts. This should limit any organized severe potential, but isolated stronger cells can't be ruled out where damaging winds will be the main threat.
Overnight Monday lows fall into the low to mid 70s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
A brief respite from the extreme heat is expected Tuesday as a front settles south and NW flow increases aloft.
Highs should settle into the low to mid 90s, closer to seasonal normals, with lower humidity and mostly sunny skies.
Overnight lows drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.
By Wednesday and Thursday, southerly return flow may allow temperatures to rebound somewhat into the mid to upper 90s, though heat indices are not expected to reach as high as the previous weekend.
Isolated afternoon showers or storms remain possible but coverage looks limited.
Toward the end of the next week into next weekend, global models show better agreement on a broader trough amplifying over the eastern U.S. This evolution should finally push he ridge farther SW and open the door for more widespread rain chances and a return to near normal or slightly below normal temperatures by next Sunday.
Confidence increases in the overall cooling trend but remains moderate on exact precipitation timing and amounts through the second half of next week.