80% Chance Of 100 Degrees
Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 6:35 PM
Lyrics
Dangerous heat expected through the weekend with triple digit heat indices west of the Cumberland Plateau. Low to medium thunderstorm chances primarily east of Interstate sixty-five each afternoon and evening through Thursday. Stronger storms will be capable of damaging winds and heavy rain. High pressure building over the southeast! Dewpoints crawling in the seventies, suffocating peace! Northwest flow leaves the door wide open, Convection allowing models running morning runs and broken! Waffling on the radar, waffling on the screen, Is this a storm or just the hottest air I've ever seen? Downdraft convective available potential energy in place, Moisture and instability staring down my face! Damaging winds collapsing from the sky, And overnight the temperatures won't even try to die! Eighty percent chance of one hundred degrees! There is no shelter, there is no breeze! Lows in the upper seventies through the night, We are burning up under this blinding light! Eighty percent chance of one hundred degrees! Marginal risk east of Interstate sixty-five! Just trying to keep this fragile body alive! High resolution rapid refresh models running blind, Leaving every single threat conditionally defined! The ridge pushes north, the rain chances drop, There is no boundary coming down to make this heat wave stop! Extreme heat risk for everyone! Trapped under an unrelenting southern sun! From Thursday into Saturday the nineties bleed, A brutal, suffocating forecast is the only thing we read! Eighty percent chance of one hundred degrees! There is no shelter, there is no breeze! Lows in the upper seventies through the night, We are burning up under this blinding light! Eighty percent chance of one hundred degrees! Check on your sensitive! Check on your friends! Until early next week, This fever never ends! One hundred degrees! One hundred degrees!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 631 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
- Dangerous heat expected through the weekend with triple digit heat indices west of the Cumberland Plateau.
- Low to medium thunderstorm chances primarily east of I-65 each afternoon and evening through Thursday.
Stronger storms will be capable of damaging winds and heavy rain.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1034 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
High pressure will be building over the southeast US through the remainder of the week, allowing for temperatures to soar.
Highs this afternoon and again Wednesday will reach into the mid-90s for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.
With dewpoints in the 70s, it'll feel humid which means that heat index values will get into the low triple digits both afternoons.
This high pressure won't completely suppress thunderstorms as it remains too far south through Wednesday, leaving us in northwest flow.
Northwest flow typically means that the door is open for MCSs to track south/southeast into Middle TN. Models do suggest this with CAMs showing the potential for an MCS this afternoon and evening and another Wednesday afternoon and evening.
CAMs do struggle tremendously in this type of pattern with runs this morning waffling on if we'll see any storms today.
If the do happen, plenty of instability, DCAPE, and moisture will be available to them, giving any storms the opportunity to produce damaging winds and heavy rain.
Primary threat will be for areas east of I-65. Marginal risks are in place for both today and tomorrow to highlight this conditional threat.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1034 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
During the latter half of the week, high pressure will continue to build north, and temperatures will only get hotter.
High temperatures will get into the upper-90s for many locations west of the Plateau Thursday into Saturday, and then we may even be talking about triple digit heat by Sunday.
At Nashville, the NBM gives an 80% chance of hitting 100 degrees Sunday.
Even if we don't hit triple digits, this heat wave will still be dangerous.
This prolonged stretch of hot temperatures will make for major to extreme heat risk for all.
So be sure to take care of yourself and check on others who may be more sensitive to heat.
Unfortunately, overnight won't offer much relief with lows in the mid to upper-70s with high humidity.
As far as rain goes, the more this high pressure builds overhead, the more rain chances go down.
There are low rain chances Thursday & Friday, but the weekend looks to be dry which coincides with the hottest temperatures.
The heat should break early next week as the high moves west and a boundary comes down from the north.