A Rock & A Hard Place
Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 12:40 AM
Lyrics
Heat Risk will climb to Major level, three out of four, this week. A Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau starting Tuesday. Low to medium, less than forty percent, chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening, best chances generally east of Interstate sixty-five. Overall risk for flooding and severe weather is low, but please remain weather aware tomorrow and Wednesday. Quiet feedback hums through the heavy air. A dark, brooding bassline pulses in the silence. High pressure building in the southeast. Caught on the southern periphery of northwest flow aloft. Northwest flow brings so many questions. Soundings loaded with downdraft convective available potential energy. The upper ridge axis pushes far enough north. Heat index climbing to one hundred five, one hundred seven. Convection-allowing models show storms tracking south-southeastward. A bear to accurately forecast. If the track pushes into Middle Tennessee, damaging winds will tear through the oppressive heat. The ridge is building, the air is boiling, and there is nowhere left to hide. Caught between a rock and a hard place! Trapped beneath this suffocating sky! The heat verified, the atmosphere is burning, and the storms are crashing down! Heavy bass groove darkens, guitar feedback swells into frantic overdrive. EIGHTY PERCENT CHANCE OF TRIPLE DIGITS! EIGHTY PERCENT! ONE HUNDRED SEVEN DEGREE HEAT INDEX! EIGHTY PERCENT CHANCE! MISERABLE! Keep an eye on the ones you love. It is going to be a miserable week.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1237 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
- Heat Risk will climb to Major level (3 out of 4) this week.
A Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau starting Tuesday.
- Low to medium (<40%) chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening, best chances generally east of I-65. Overall risk for flooding and severe weather is low, but please remain weather aware tomorrow and Wednesday.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Another quiet day is just about in the books.
Other than a few sprigs of reflectivity on the radar, no one saw any rain today.
This is welcomed sight, allowing for our soils to do some more recovering after last week's widespread heavy rains.
Some patchy fog is possible after midnight, but it should be relegated to a few spots on the Plateau and that's about it.
After two pretty benign days, we find ourselves in an interesting position regards to this current pattern.
High pressure is starting to build into the southeast US and I think we might find ourselves caught between a rock and a hard place.
As you may have seen, we already have Heat Advisories posted for tomorrow through Thursday so far (we call that foreshadowing).
The upper ridge axis is expected to push far enough northward to allow for temperatures tomorrow to be a little warmer than today.
This should give a good chunk of the mid-state the opportunity to see Heat Index values of 105-107. At the same time, the ridge may not build far enough north to shield us from storm chances tomorrow and Wednesday.
Now, I'm not talking about afternoon pop-up storms like we saw last week.
We're actually right on the southern periphery of northwest flow aloft.
If you're not familiar, NW flows aloft bring a LOT of questions with them.
CAMs are suggesting that storms will develop north of us and traverse south/southeastward into portions of Middle TN each of the next two afternoons.
Late in the afternoon into the evening, too.
That means we shouldn't be disturbed, allowing for the Heat Advisories to verify without any trouble, but also cranking up the instability for any storms that decide to make their way into our area.
Forecast soundings are full of DCAPE each of the next two days, as well.
So, let's make this conditional on whether the track of storms get into Middle TN. If they do, damaging wind will be a risk -- on top of heavy rainfall.
Like I said, the NW flow is going to be a bear to accurately forecast.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
For the last few nights, models weren't quite sure what to do with this ridge.
The picture became a little clearer last night and I think we're tracking right towards a decent heat wave by the end of the week.
For the last two runs, the NBM has increased temperatures a degree or two each day through Sunday, culminating with triple digits in several spots Sunday afternoon.
Now, what I know that the NBM doesn't is that BNA doesn't hit triple digits very often.
However, even 98-99 degrees is going to be miserable and even if BNA doesn't get there, there will several that do. Here's the kicker -- NBM probs of seeing triple digits on Saturday or Sunday? 80%.
Yeah, it's going to be a miserable week.
The good news, the more of this ridge axis we get, the less the thunderstorm coverage should be. I don't know if that's a glass half-full way of looking at it. This guy already hates summer.
So, if you know people who are sensitive to heat, you may want to start making plans to keep an eye on them for the rest of this week and into next weekend.