Climbing Through The Threshold
Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 10:48 PM
Lyrics
Heat Risk will climb to Major level, three out of four, this week. Heat Advisories may be issued west of the Plateau, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Low to medium, ten to forty percent, chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening, highest chances along the Cumberland Plateau. Heavy downpours with local flash flooding will be the main concern. Gusty winds can not be ruled out, but the threat of severe winds is very low. Sunday turned out to be our quietest day. After the flooding in Williamson County, the soils had time to recover. Patchy fog after midnight, but the silence will not last. The upper level ridge is shifting west. The Bermuda Ridge retrogrades across Middle Tennessee. A couple of degrees warmer tomorrow, but that is not the peak. The air is swelling, waiting for the middle of the week. I hold off on the heat headline for now. Tuesday is coming. Wednesday is coming. One hundred five to one hundred seven degrees! Feels-like temperatures climbing through the threshold! We hold off on the headline for one more day! One hundred five to one hundred seven degrees! FEELS LIKE ONE HUNDRED SEVEN DEGREES! FEELS LIKE ONE HUNDRED SEVEN DEGREES! FEELS LIKE ONE HUNDRED SEVEN DEGREES! FEELS LIKE ONE HUNDRED SEVEN DEGREES!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
- Heat Risk will climb to Major level (3 out of 4) this week.
Heat Advisories may be issued west of the Plateau, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Low to medium (10 to 40 percent) chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening (highest chances along the Cumberland Plateau).
Heavy downpours with local flash flooding will be the main concern.
Gusty winds can't be ruled out, but the threat of severe winds is very low.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Sunday turned out to be our quietest day of weather in the last week.
A few spots saw some thunderstorms, but after the flooding we saw Saturday in Williamson County, I'll take the lack of activity anytime.
This also provided our soils an opportunity to recover after the widespread storms on Saturday.
Some patchy fog will be possible after midnight, but shouldn't be widespread at all.
We've been talking about this quite a bit the last few days and it does look like we're going to start seeing more upper level ridging begin to influence our weather in Middle TN on Monday.
The Bermuda Ridge has started to retrograde to the west and while a couple of storms can't be ruled out, I think the bigger issue will start to become the heat.
Now, while tomorrow should be a couple of degrees warmer than we saw today, I don't think it's going to be our warmest and most humid day of the week.
This looks like it's going to be Tuesday and maybe even again on Wednesday.
A couple of spots may reach Heat Index values of 105 tomorrow, but by far, feels-like temps of 105 to 107 degrees will be much more widespread on minimally on Tuesday, but even Wednesday.
For this reason, I'll hold off on the heat headline for tomorrow and focus on the middle of the week for Heat Advisories.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
As we reach Thursday, there are still some inconsistencies between models.
However, it does seem as though stronger ridging may end up winning out over the mid-state and the latest NBM is definitely picking up on this.
What was upper 80s to about 90 for the second half of the week has now become mid 90s for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau right into next weekend.
NBM MaxT probs each afternoon starting Thursday through next weekend of seeing 95+ degrees stands at 70-80% for many west of the Plateau.
Only 48 hours ago, it was only 30-40%.
Big change.
Dew points will be the big challenge, but even at these environmental temps, we may only be in advisory territory.
Again, I don't think we rule out a stray storm for the second half of the week, but if temps are going to get this warm because of a strengthening ridge, convection should be at a minimum each afternoon.