Level Three Out of Four
Friday, August 7, 2026 · 6:46 PM
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Issued at 1100 AM CDT. Our copy-paste weather button is getting worn out. Once again we will see scattered showers and a few storms bubble up through the afternoon. Most of us will not see any rain at all, while a few of us will get more than we want. A strong Bermuda high will be centered off to our east with another strong high centered over the southwest states. These high pressure systems will bridge over our area. The heat is stagnant. It sits over the Mid-State and refuses to bleed. East of I-65, low coverage turns to medium. Patchy fog in the late night hours. No watches. No warnings. Just the relentless repetition of an endless August. Monday approaches. Tuesday approaches. Heat index values climbing toward one hundred and five. The bridge is holding overhead! Two massive domes of high pressure locking us in the vault! Gusts forty to fifty miles per hour under collapsing cells! Localized flooding where the downpours stall! We are trapped in the routine! We are suffocating in the muggy darkness! Heat risk ascending! Level three! Level three! OUR COPY-PASTE BUTTON IS GETTING WORN OUT! OUR COPY-PASTE BUTTON IS GETTING WORN OUT! THE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES OVER US! OUR COPY-PASTE BUTTON IS GETTING WORN OUT! MAJOR HEAT RISK! LEVEL THREE OUT OF FOUR! ONE HUNDRED AND FIVE DEGREES! THERE IS NO ESCAPE FROM THIS PATTERN! OUR COPY-PASTE BUTTON IS GETTING WORN OUT! OUR COPY-PASTE BUTTON IS GETTING WORN OUT! LEVEL THREE OUT OF FOUR!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 643 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026
- Scattered afternoon/early evening showers and storms each day.
Low coverage west of I-65 with medium coverage east of I-65.
- No severe weather is expected, but any storm has the potential to produce gusty winds around 40 mph and heavy downpours causing local flash flooding.
- Heat Index values in the upper 90 to low 100s each afternoon, potentially a touch warmer Monday and Tuesday.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026
Our copy-paste weather button is getting worn out.
Once again we will see scattered showers and a few storms bubble up through the afternoon.
Most of us will not see any rain at all while a few of us will get more than we want.
Other than the possibility of localized flooding in a spot or two, the storms will be gusty but below severe levels.
As usual, most of the storms will die off with sunset and lead to patchy fog in the late night hours.
The afternoon will bring typical August heat and humidity and the night will be muggy.
For Saturday, things will change slightly.
A shortwave trough coming from the west will help initiate scattered showers and storms distributed across the entire area.
This is a change from recent days when storms were focused mostly over our southern and eastern counties.
Main impacts will be gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, lightning, and local heavy downpours.
Most outdoor events should be ok to proceed as scheduled, but plans should be in place for sheltering from passing storms.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026
A strong Bermuda high will be centered off to our east with another strong high centered over the southwest states.
These high pressure systems will bridge over our area bringing slightly hotter temperatures and lower rain chances for Sunday through at least Tuesday.
Rain chances will be in the 10 to 30 percent range while temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s for areas west of the Plateau.
Heat risk will climb solidly into the "Major" level, which is level 3 out of 4. It is uncertain if heat headlines will be posted, but Monday and Tuesday look like the days with greatest chances for heat index values topping 105 in parts of the Mid State.
Later in the week, the "bridge" between the high pressure centers will flatten out, allowing temps to back off slightly as daily shower and storm chances increase.
This means generally typical August heat and humidity with 30 to 50 percent rain chances.