The cutoff upper low is weakening in my chest
Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 12:25 PM
Lyrics
The cutoff upper low is weakening in my chest Absorbed into prevailing winds north of here Heat index touching one hundred west of the Plateau Typical August humidity chokes every breath I take An impulse approaches from the west-northwest Deep moisture lingers in the space between us TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGING TOGETHER! HEAT RISK LEVEL THREE OUT OF FOUR! TWO TO THREE INCHES IN LAWRENCEBURG! FLASH FLOODING IN THE LOCALIZED DARKNESS! MANY SPOTS GET NOTHING WHILE A FEW GET TOO MUCH! HEAT INDEX ONE HUNDRED AND FIVE! Diurnal convection dies with the setting sun The storms collapse in the quiet Late night fog sets the stage over saturated ground Where the heaviest rain fell down We drown in the moisture we could not escape TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGING TOGETHER! HEAT RISK LEVEL THREE OUT OF FOUR! TWO TO THREE INCHES IN LAWRENCEBURG! FLASH FLOODING IN THE LOCALIZED DARKNESS! MANY SPOTS GET NOTHING WHILE A FEW GET TOO MUCH! HEAT INDEX ONE HUNDRED AND FIVE!
The forecast discussion
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
Yesterday's storms were focused along a low-level instability gradient from Clay and Macon Counties down to Lawrence County.
Very heavy downpours created some localized spots of flash flooding.
We do not expect as much coverage today, but where scattered storms occur, the threat for very heavy rainfall and localized flooding will continue.
A few spots could see 2 to 3 inches of rain while most of Middle Tennessee will get through the day rain-free.
Otherwise, typical August heat and humidity will be in place with heat index values touching 100 for many areas west of the Plateau.
The cutoff upper low that has lingered over our eastern counties the past few days will continue to weaken today and eventually get absorbed into prevailing winds north of our area Friday into Saturday.
Still, a band of deep moisture will linger as an impulse comes our way from the west northwest.
This will keep the scattered shower and storm pattern going with lowest coverage west and greater coverage east, especially Plateau.
Probabilities for rain and storms will peak Saturday, ranging from 30 percent west to nearly 70 percent along the PLateau.
There will be enough instability for a few "strong" storms with gusty winds of 40 or 50 mph, but we are not looking for widespread or organized severe wx. The main concern will be heavy rain leading to local flash flooding, like we saw in Lawrenceburg and a few other spots yesterday when 2 to 3 inches of rain fell in a short period.
The deep convection will continue to be mostly diurnal, with showers and storms mostly ending with sunset.
This will set the stage for areas of late night fog, especially where rain falls.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
Strong high pressure systems will be centered off to our southeast and out to our west.
We will experience relatively weaker ridging in between.
This means a very warm and humid pattern with daily chances for showers and storms.
It is nearly impossible to be precise about rain hitting any particular location.
Sadly, many spots will not get much rain at all through the next week while a few spots get too much.
In general, Sunday through Tuesday look like the days with lowest rain coverage (10 to 30 percent) and hottest conditions as the 2 high pressure centers bridge together across the area.
The ridge will weaken over our area mid to late week, allowing daily storm chances to increase (30 to 60 percent).
Most days will bring heat index values over 100 for areas west of the Plateau.
The hottest days, Sunday through Tuesday, could see heat index values topping 105 for some spots.
This will push the Heat Risk level to 3 out of 4 for many areas and advisories may be considered.